Airport Scanner Radiation Risk Low, Agencies Say

February 5, 2010

New full-body airport security scanners using X-rays generate much lower doses than normal background radiation, a draft report compiled by international agencies says.

Such devices, which cost about 10 times as much as conventional airport scanners, are likely to go into much wider use since a Nigerian man alleged to have had explosives hidden undetected in his underwear boarded a US plane heading to Detroit on December 25.

While normal annual background radiation per person runs to about 3,000 microsieverts — a unit used to measure radiation exposure — the body scan delivers 0.1 to 5 microsieverts, the report, compiled by a group of international bodies including the European Commission and the UN nuclear agency said.

“This (risk) is very small,” Renate Czarwinski, head of radiation safety and monitoring at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna, said on Friday.

“Every application of X-ray systems should be justified… you have to weigh the benefits and the probable harm. The benefit, for security, is very high,” she said.

There are two types of full-body scanner — one which uses high frequency radio waves and one using X-rays — and only the latter machine would expose passengers to the ionising radiation such as that used in medical X-rays, Czarwinski said.

Although the dosages are small, the inter-agency report said exposures should be carefully monitored.

“In order to appropriately assess the full radiological protection impact of scanner use, the manner in which passengers will be selected should be known,” it said.

The scanners, used to see under clothes and identify unusual objects, may have detected the hidden explosives the Nigerian is alleged to have carried on board the jet but their use has been limited mainly because of cost and privacy concerns.

(Reuters)

Asur January Passenger Traffic Down 4.6 Pct

February 5, 2010

Mexican airport operator Asur said on Friday its January passenger traffic fell 4.6 percent from a year before as fewer international passengers arrived at its flagship Cancun facility.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (Asur) has been slowly recovering from all-time traffic lows after a flu outbreak in Mexico slowed the economy for several days in the second quarter of last year, scaring tourists away.

The economic crisis in the United States, which supplies the bulk of international visitors to Mexico, has also hurt tourism.

Cancun, representing 75 percent of all passengers using Asur’s nine airports, posted a 3 percent decline in total traffic in January.

In December, Asur’s traffic dropped 4.1 percent.

(Reuters)

Abu Dhabi Wealth Fund To Buy Gatwick Stake

February 5, 2010

Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund is to buy a 15 percent stake in London’s Gatwick Airport for GBP£125 million pounds (USD$198.4 million) as the airport’s new owner aims to bring in additional investors, the Times newspaper reported in its online edition on Thursday.

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority’s planned investment in London’s second-biggest airport comes two days after South Korea’s National Pension Service said it planned to buy a 12 percent stake in Gatwick for about GBP£100 million.

A spokesman for Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), which acquired Gatwick last year for GBP£1.5 billion, declined to comment on the report.

GIP is a USD$5.64 billion infrastructure fund sponsored by Credit Suisse and General Electric.

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is considered the world’s biggest sovereign wealth fund and believed to have assets of USD$500 billion to USD$700 billion.

GIP said on Tuesday that it planned to remain a majority shareholder in Gatwick but sell minority stakes to outside investors.

(Reuters)

Global Air Industry Sees Recovery But Not This Year

February 3, 2010

The global economy may be climbing out of recession but the air transport industry does not expect any significant pick up in orders this year, executives said on Wednesday.

“Cautious optimism” is the dominant phrase at the Singapore Airshow this week, the first major industry event of the year after a wretched 2009, when aircraft orders at both Airbus and Boeing were the worst in 15 years.

Amid a dearth of orders at the air show, both manufacturers said demand was likely to remain more or less flat in 2010. But there were some spots of good news elsewhere.

Brazil’s Embraer said it hoped to better the 2009 sales of 30 jets, but would fall short of the 100 sold in 2008.

“Generally we see 2010 as the year of economic recovery and 2011 a year where airlines recover to profitability and as a result of that (we see) an increase in demand for airplanes in 2012,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes.

Boeing had gross orders from airlines for 263 planes in 2009, but net orders of 142 planes after cancellations. Airbus had gross orders of 310 planes and net orders of 271.

Airbus, however, was upbeat on prospects in the longer term and saw the rapidly growing Asia-Pacific region becoming the largest air transport market in the next 20 years.

“Everybody was talking about recession… but we actually think we are coming out the other side,” said Airbus sales chief John Leahy, who has predicted sales of 250-300 this year with about 25-35 percent from Asia.

Airbus expects up to 10 orders for its flagship A380 superjumbo after only four last year. With a list price of about USD$346 million, the A380 is the world’s biggest airliner.

The European planemaker expects the Asia-Pacific region to purchase 8,000 new aircraft, valued at USD$1.2 trillion, by 2028, about a third of total global demand for almost 25,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at USD$3.1 trillion.

“I think it’s a year of recovery for the airlines, hopefully,” said August Wilhelm Henningsen chairman of the executive board of Lufthansa Technik. “The Asian airlines are coming back, but the rest is still not.”

CHINA’S MOVES CAST SHADOW

All bets however could be off if China’s escalating row with the United States begins to take a toll on trade, especially air cargo, and on Boeing.

China has reacted angrily to reports that U. President Barack Obama plans to meet the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan Buddhist leader reviled by Beijing as a separatist for seeking self-rule for his mountain homeland.

The flare-up comes soon after Beijing lashed Washington over a USD$6.4 billion US weapons package for Taiwan, the self-ruled island that Beijing deems an illegitimate breakaway province.

It also comes during Sino-US tensions over the value of China’s currency, trade protectionism and Internet freedoms.

Boeing unit McDonnell Douglas builds the Harpoon Telemetry missiles that are part of the package of sales to Taiwan. China has threatened to punish the firms involved.

Tinseth declined to elaborate on any impact on Boeing sales to China arising from the row.

“It’s government-to-government and I’m just not going to speculate,” he said.

Cathay Pacific, Asia’s No. 4 airline, has said its growth is underpinned by growth in cargo traffic in and out of China.

“I’m cautiously optimistic,” chief executive Tony Tyler said.

“We saw a recovering trend in the last quarter of 2009 and some of the strength in both the premium passenger market and the cargo market have carried through into the first quarter of this year. That gives us rather more comfort than we had last year.”

(Reuters)

Air Security Firms Likely To Boost Sales

February 1, 2010

The renewed focus on aviation security is likely to boost sales for providers of whole body imagers and other detection equipment.

The failed Christmas Day attempt to blow up a US-bound airliner has spurred increased orders worldwide for detection equipment and baggage-scanning devices. For example, Britain introduced whole body imagers at London’s Heathrow airport on Monday.

The higher demand will benefit companies such as L-3 Communications, OSI Systems, American Science & Engineering and Analogic.

“All countries are taking a much closer look at this particular technology and also other methods to address this kind of threat,” said Brook Miller, a vice president at Smiths Detection, a unit of Britain’s Smiths Group that supplies X-ray machines and other detection equipment to airports.

Smiths Detection is seeing increased interest not only in its body imaging product that is undergoing US lab testing but also in its overall suite of aviation-security products, and it expects its USD$800 million-a-year business to grow.

“We anticipate this (rising interest) pushing our commercial options a little bit further, a little bit faster,” Miller said.

L-3 and OSI Systems, currently the only two qualified vendors for whole body scanners to the US Transportation Security Administration, said last week that increased sales of the devices, which have raised privacy concerns since they can see through clothing and spot hidden items, provide upside to revenues this year.

“There’s really been no bust for most companies” following the increase in demand for infrastructure security products that came after the September 11, 2001, hijack attacks, said Tim Quillin, an analyst with Stephens.

“There’s plenty of things to worry about which will drive long-term demand for security products,” he added.

Quillin said a body imaging system from American Science & Engineering is also likely to gain TSA certification because it is similar to OSI’s product.

ACQUISITIONS COULD COME

At the same time, the move to more rigorous screening measures could also drive mergers and acquisitions in aviation security.

Stifel Nicolaus analyst Stephen Levenson said American Science & Engineering and Analogic could either initiate or be on the receiving end of aviation security deals.

“They both have plenty of cash available and they could both be targets — or they could be buyers if they find the right technology and the transaction that makes sense,” Levenson said.

BB&T’s Lewis said L-3 could play the role of consolidator in a bid to gain market share. L-3 has already stated it is looking for acquisitions in areas such as systems that gather and monitor defence intelligence.

“L-3 has the financial wherewithal to be able to reach deep into its pockets and invest in an area where it sees great opportunity,” Lewis said.

“As a result of the expected increases that we should see in this (security) area, I think L-3 has a great chance to take additional market share versus its pure competitors.”

(Reuters)

Air Security “Blacklist” Angers US Allies

February 1, 2010

Airline security measures introduced by Washington after a failed attempt to blow up a flight on Christmas Day risk backfiring because they have angered important US partners in the fight against al Qaeda.

Saudi Arabia, Algeria and Nigeria have voiced their displeasure at their inclusion on a 14-country list where passengers departing for the United States are to be subject to especially rigorous pre-flight screening.

None of them have said publicly they will scale back security cooperation with the United States in response, but relations have been left frayed and Washington was worried enough to assign a senior diplomat to try to repair the damage.

“The United States is behaving like a bull in a china shop,” said Mohamed Lagab, an Algerian lecturer in political science who has close ties to his country’s government.

Washington announced the new security measures soon after Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, a Nigerian man described by US officials as an al Qaeda operative, is alleged to have tried to detonate explosives hidden in his underwear on a December 25 flight as it approached the US city of Detroit.

The 14 countries on Washington’s list are Cuba, Iran, Syria, Sudan, Afghanistan, Algeria, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Somalia and Yemen.

“BLACKLIST”

Several independent analysts have said the list does little to plug the security gaps exposed by the bomb attempt. Meanwhile for some US allies, inclusion on what they perceive as a terrorism blacklist has been a shock and an insult.

Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Ministry has sent a request to the US State Department to clarify the move, Western diplomats and a Saudi security source said.

The world’s largest petroleum exporter, Saudi Arabia has almost entirely stamped out a wave of domestic al Qaeda violence that began six years ago.

“This is probably the first measure by the Obama administration in its global campaign against terrorism. It is a very disappointing measure for us, because what we were expecting was a deeper and more efficient cooperation,” the Saudi security source said.

In Nigeria, Information Minister Dora Akunyili said her country’s inclusion was “unfair”. She warned that bilateral relations between Nigeria and the United States, purchaser of 45 percent of its oil exports, could be at risk.

In Algeria, Foreign Minister Mourad Medelci summoned the US ambassador and said Algeria’s inclusion in the list was “unfortunate, unjustified and discriminatory.”

There was also grass-roots anger in Algeria, a North African oil and gas producer where security forces have made progress in clamping down on an al Qaeda-linked insurgency.

“I don’t think we deserve this,” said Farouk Guettouche, a 44-year-old unemployed man. “We’re not Afghanistan.”

SECURITY INTERESTS

US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Janet Sanderson flew to Algiers last week for what she said afterwards were “frank” talks focusing on the security list. She said she was also having consultations on the issue with other US allies.

“Let me assure you that my government has heard you,” she told reporters in Algiers. “What we are trying to do is to create a system that responds to the ever-changing conditions that the terrorists seem to be able to exploit.”

Washington is anxious not to hurt diplomatic ties because important security cooperation is at stake, especially with Saudi Arabia and Algeria, two countries in the front line of the battle against al Qaeda.

The United States is relying on Saudi assistance to help prevent al Qaeda expanding its foothold in neighbouring Yemen — the focus of intense US attention after the Yemeni arm of Osama bin Laden’s network claimed responsibility for the Christmas Day bomb plot.

Turki al-Sahil, who covers diplomatic and security issues at Saudi Arabia’s Asharq al-Awsat newspaper, said security cooperation with Washington would bounce back. “Saudi Arabia and US strategic interests are bigger than this,” he said.

Security ties with Algeria are less robust. The United States needs its help to contain the spread of al Qaeda in the vast and poorly policed Sahara desert, but Algeria’s government is ambivalent about a growing US role in the region.

“The Americans’ interests and their security are at stake,” Algeria’s Liberte newspaper wrote about the list. “They should remedy their mistake and by doing so encourage Algeria to continue its implacable fight against terrorism.”

(Reuters)

London’s Heathrow Deploys Body Scanners

February 1, 2010

Britain introduced body scanners at London’s Heathrow airport on Monday, a measure rushed in after a failed attempt by a Muslim extremist with explosives strapped to his leg to bomb a US-bound passenger plane from Amsterdam.

The scanners, which see through clothes to produce an image of the body, have caused unease among human rights campaigners who fear an invasion of passengers’ privacy as well as the disproportionate scrutiny of Muslim travellers by authorities.

“Given the current security threat level, the government believes it essential to start introducing scanners immediately,” said Transport Secretary Andrew Adonis.

Britain raised its terrorism threat level to “severe,” the second-highest level, on January 22, days before London was due to host two international conferences on Yemen and Afghanistan. The conferences took place last week without any security incident.

The British government has been particularly concerned about the botched attempt by suspect Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, a Nigerian national, to blow up a plane bound for Detroit on December 25 because he was a student in London between 2005 and 2008.

Abdulmutallab boarded the US flight at Amsterdam’s Schiphol airport, which already has 15 body scanners and plans to install more. France and Italy have also signalled they would start using the devices at their airports.

In a statement, Adonis said airports at Heathrow and Manchester, northern England, were the first required to use the scanners and others would follow. Scanners will be introduced at Birmingham airport (in central England) this month.

“In the immediate future, only a small proportion of airline passengers will be selected for scanning. If a passenger is selected for scanning, and declines, they will not be permitted to fly,” he said.

An interim code of practice for security staff stipulated that passengers should not be selected for scanning on the basis of gender, age, race or ethnic origin, Adonis said.

He added that the government would launch a public consultation on the rules that should be applied in the use of scanners, with a view to producing a final code of practice.

The merits and uses of body scanners have been vigorously debated in Europe since the failed Christmas Day bombing.

The European Union’s new transport chief, Siim Kallas, said last month member states should refrain from using the devices until the bloc agrees on rules to protect privacy and health.

But the bloc’s anti-terrorism chief, Gilles de Kerchove, said days earlier that all EU countries should introduce them.

(Reuters)

Body Scanners Introduced at UK’s Manchester Airport

February 1, 2010

Passengers flying through Manchester Airport in the North West of England may be body scanned as part of the airport’s routine security procedures.

Manchester has been trialling a Rapiscan Secure 1000 scanner in its Terminal 2 since October. It is one of two airports that have been directed by the UK Government to introduce the technology.

Additional scanners are planned in the airport’s Terminals 1 and 3 by the end of the month.

The introduction of the scanners follows the incident on an airliner bound for Detroit on Christmas Day.

Since that time the UK Government has been working closely with airport authorities to introduce additional security measures including introducing body scanners at airports.

Under the new rules, any passenger refusing to be body scanned will not be allowed to travel.

(Airwise)

US Airport Parking Firm PCAA Bankrupt

January 28, 2010

Off-site airport parking operator Parking Company of America Airports filed for bankruptcy protection in a Delaware court on Thursday.

The Essington, Pennsylvania-based company, which operates under the AviStar, FastTrack and SkyPark banners, said it was directly impacted by the decline in business and leisure travel stemming from the recession.

PCAA plans to borrow up to USD$5 million as debtor-in-possession loan to fund operations during its bankruptcy.

The company operates 31 parking facilities near 20 airports across the United States and employs about 1,063 people. It owns the underlying property at about 70 percent of its facilities.

In court papers, PCAA said it had assets of USD$94 million and debt of USD$233 million as of September 2009.

(Reuters)

Auckland Airport Plans NZD$126 Mln Issue

January 27, 2010

New Zealand airport operator Auckland International Airport plans to raise NZD$126.4 million (USD$89.6 million) through an issue of new shares, the company said on Wednesday.

It said it would offer eligible shareholders one new share for every 16 currently held at a price of NZD$1.65 each, a 14 percent discount to the company’s last traded price.

The money raised is planned to part pay for the purchase of a stake in North Queensland Airports, which cost the company around NZD$166.7 million.

(Reuters)

Bomb Threat Plane Makes Emergency Landing In Greece

January 22, 2010

A passenger plane flying from Germany to Turkey made a safe emergency landing in the northern Greek city of Thessaloniki on Friday after a bomb threat, Greek officials said.

“Someone called the pilot on his mobile phone and threatened him,” said a Greek civil aviation official who declined to be named. “The plane has landed safely.”

The SunExpress plane carried 69 passengers, the official said.

(Reuters)

US Warns Against Same Airport Security Systems

January 22, 2010

The United States does not want countries to use identical airport security systems which could make it easier for potential attackers to elude them, US Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said on Friday.

“What we want to avoid is a ‘cookie cutter’ (identical) approach, because then the terrorists know about the approach and they plan around it,” Napolitano said during a visit to Europe to discuss tightening airport security.

US use of full body scanning for airline passengers has increased in the wake of a failed bombing attempt last month on a US passenger jet, though some European countries are reticent to introduce technology that could violate privacy.

“There is a whole mix of technology and practices that can be done at airports independently of scanners and this is what we are focused on as an international consensus,” the Security Secretary said.

Napolitano is flying to Geneva to meet airline associations after agreeing with her EU counterparts on Thursday in the Spanish city of Toledo to propose new measures on airline passenger information sharing by April.

Thursday’s meeting was prompted by the failed Christmas Day attempt to blow up a Detroit-bound airliner blamed on Nigerian Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab.

(Reuters)

Munich Airport Reopens After Security Breach

January 21, 2010

Munich airport was re-opened on Wednesday after a three-hour shut down caused when a passenger left the security check even though his laptop computer set off an explosives detector, police said.

About 1,200 police did not find the man in their search of the terminal, which was shut down and completely evacuated. All passengers had to go through security checks a second time after the terminal was re-opened, an airport spokesman said.

“We checked the terminal intensively and we’re certain that there are no explosives or dangerous materials in the terminal,” said Peter Pruemm, a spokesman Munich’s Franz Josef Airport, Germany’s second largest airport.

Pruemm said an earlier statement by federal police that the laptop had been confiscated turned out to be inaccurate. He said the man took his laptop and left the security area before it could be put through the security device a second time.

“He took his laptop and left the security area,” Pruemm said. “The laptop was not confiscated. That information was inaccurate.”

More than 100 flights were delayed, police said.

Fights bound for destinations in Germany and abroad were delayed as security officials searched the airport’s Terminal 2 for the passenger, airport spokesman Edgar Engert said.

The security breach happened at about 3:30 pm (1430 GMT) and the closed-off section of the airport was reopened at 6:42 pm (1742 GMT).

The police spokesman said the closed-area affected European Union flights by German carrier Lufthansa and its partner airlines.

(Reuters)

Air Traffic Controllers To Disrupt Irish Airports

January 20, 2010

Flights from Irish airports will be disrupted on Wednesday because of a dispute following the suspension of air traffic controllers for refusing to adopt new work practices, union and aviation officials said.

The Irish Aviation Authority said in a statement it had suspended controllers who refused to carry out “normal assigned duties” and flights from all airports were likely to be affected.

Irish airline Ryanair said it was cancelling 48 flights on Wednesday, affecting more than 6,000 passengers, as a result of the dispute.

Ireland’s largest public sector union IMPACT said 15 controllers had been suspended so far and its members would take disruptive action, beginning with mandatory union meetings on Wednesday.

These will take place between 2 pm and 6 pm on Wednesday at Dublin airport and Shannon in the west and between 4 pm and 6 pm at Cork in the south.

Dublin airport is the headquarters of Aer Lingus and Ryanair, and Shannon is an important stop-over for flights to the United States.

IMPACT had already notified the Irish government that from next Monday, its members would halt any duties performed outside contract in protest at government austerity plans.

But, as the public has grudgingly accepted the need for austerity measures to curb a budget deficit of nearly 12 percent of gross domestic product, few are expecting a repeat of November’s national public sector strike.

The Irish Aviation Authority, a semi-state body, said it believed the union’s real agenda was to seek a pay increase and defend public sector pensions.

Michael Landers, assistant general secretary of IMPACT, said those issues were being dealt with separately and the warning of wider action from next Monday was also separate from the air traffic controllers’ dispute.

Irish and British airports have been subject to repeated closures and delays since late December because of bad weather.

(Reuters)

Arrest In JFK Terminal Security Breach

January 18, 2010

A Haitian man has been charged with criminal trespass following a security breach that triggered the evacuation of a terminal at John F Kennedy Airport in New York on Saturday, authorities said on Sunday.

Jules Paul Bouloute, 57, a Brooklyn resident, is accused of going through a door restricted to airport and airline employees after arriving on a flight from the Dominican Republic, setting off an alarm.

American Airlines Terminal 8 was cleared for several hours and thousands of passengers were delayed for re-screening after the breach, which happened shortly after 3 pm, airline spokesman Charley Wilson said.

The Transportation Safety Administration and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, which has jurisdiction over the three major metropolitan area airports, ordered the evacuation. Passengers who had boarded also had to get off their planes and go through security again.

A security breach at Newark Airport on January 3 prompted a shutdown that delayed thousands of passengers at the end of the holiday weekend.

Authorities two week ago arrested the man suspected of setting off the scare, and charged him with defiant trespass. Security video showed the New Jersey resident slipping into a secure area at the airport to give a woman companion a goodbye kiss.

(Reuters)

Haiti Gives US Control Of Port-au-Prince Airport

January 16, 2010

Haiti’s government agreed on Friday to grant temporary control of the nation’s main airport to the United States to speed earthquake relief work, the State Department said.

“Prime Minister (Jean-Max) Bellerive signed a memorandum of understanding granting airport control to the United States,” State Department spokesman PJ Crowley told a briefing.

“Obviously we will assume this responsibility as long as its appropriate and to the point where the Haitian government is able and ready to resume that capability.”

(Reuters)

Can statistics help catch terrorists?

By Ruth Alexander
BBC’s More or Less

In the wake of the alleged attempt to bomb a Detroit-bound plane, Britain could step up airport security with targeted passenger profiling. But how effective is it?

Standing in a long queue at airport security with your fractious family, you might think it is pretty obvious you do not look like a terrorist.

But is your journey through security about to get easier – and your flight safer?

The government says it is considering screening passengers to decide which should undergo more rigorous security checks. But the practice, known as passenger profiling, is controversial.

People behaving suspiciously or with an unusual travel pattern might find themselves under additional scrutiny but racial or religious factors could also soon form part of the criteria.

But, in weighing up the merits of targeted versus random checks, the government will have to do its maths, because this seemingly straightforward idea is anything but in reality – not just because of fears that passengers will be unfairly discriminated against on grounds of ethnicity or religion, but because it involves some counter-intuitive number work.

For a start, in relying on who your statistics tell you is potentially high risk, your statistics could become unreliable, according to David Spiegelhalter, professor of the public understanding of risk at Cambridge University.

“You’re combating an intelligent adversary who could change their strategy in response to what you do,” he says.

To make sure your system is not predictable, any profiling strategy would have to be complemented by additional random checks across the whole passenger population.

“Game theory [an area of maths used, among other things, to predict and understand behaviour] shows that in response to an intelligent adversary, it often can be optimal to adopt a level of randomisation.

“There must be an element where your computer says this individual must be examined carefully, whether it’s a five-year-old child or a 90-year-old child, so any opponent knows they might be examined no matter how little they seem to fit the risk profile.”

Unlikely bomber

Hard to imagine a five-year-old or a 90-year-old becoming radicalised.

But if people like that were never checked, a terrorist could see an opportunity.

There is a famous example of an apparently unlikely bomber – a young pregnant Irish woman called Anne-Marie Murphy, who was planning to fly from London to Israel in 1986, recounts Philip Baum, editor of Aviation Security International.

Ms Murphy’s boyfriend – who, unknown to her, was a Jordanian militant – had planted explosives on her, hoping she would get on to the flight without arousing suspicion, Baum says.

But in this instance, Baum notes, the plot was stopped because of the intense passenger profiling carried out by Israeli flight security. Ms Murphy did not seem like a typical traveller for that flight.

To make sure innocent people are not used in this way, passengers should be selected for extra checks using a graded scale of risk, according to Prof Spieglhalter.

A computer scientist from the University of Texas, William Press, believes he has done the maths to come up with a good way of doing exactly that.

Additional checks

Suppose you have two people – passenger X and passenger Y – and your brilliant profiling suggests Mr X is 100 times more likely than Mr Y to be a terrorist.

Your stats tell you to pick out Mr X for additional security checks 100 times more often than Mr Y.

But William Press says that would be a mistake.

He says if you take the square root of their risk it narrows the gap between them – so you check Mr X only 10 times more often than Mr Y.

That means you do not expend all your resources checking only one tiny group of people every time they turn up at an airport – and hardly ever checking people who pose a lower risk, but still a risk.

Basically, you widen your net.

In reality, of course, your intelligence is unlikely to be as brilliant as that example suggests.

Getting good and useful data for profiling is difficult.

But, even if you supposed you had an almost perfectly accurate profiling system, there is another problem – terrorists are very rare and that leads to some counter-intuitive statistics.

If someone is stopped by security for extra checks because they seem to pose a potential risk, they are almost certainly innocent, Prof Spiegelhalter suggests.

“There are more than a 100 million people flying out of UK airports every year and you might be trying to foil one or two terrorist plots,” he says.

“Even if you had a profiling system that was 99.99% accurate, there would be 1 in 10,000 errors.

“If you consider that around 100 million people go through UK airports each year, that would mean 10,000 innocent people would trigger the system.”

“I would hope that in any training of staff, this is really rammed home.

“If you’re not going to cause enormous resentment about this, it’s got to be very delicately handled – maths tells you that.”

So although statistics could help catch terrorists, to some degree, they do not make it easy, and they probably will not get you through airport security any quicker.

(BBC)

Quake Relief Flights From US To Haiti Halted

January 14, 2010

Rescue and relief flights from the United States to Haiti were halted on Thursday due to crowding at Port-au-Prince airport, US government officials said.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) imposed a ground stop on all flights from American airspace to Haiti to prevent planes from possibly running out of fuel. At one point, 11 flights were circling the quake-stricken nation with no clearance to land.

Haitian authorities are running air traffic operations into the country where US military and civilian relief flights have been converging since Tuesday’s disaster, officials said.

Military flights carrying generators, water purifying equipment and medicine have been given priority to land. The FAA has activated a crisis management centre to coordinate US air traffic into Haiti.

US officials said the Port-au-Prince airport was saturated and ground operations could not unload and move supplies into surrounding areas quickly enough to open up more tarmac space.

Commercial airline service has been suspended though airlines are assisting with relief flights.

(Reuters)

Thai Air Sees Net Profit For 2009 And 2010

January 14, 2010

Thai Airways said on Thursday it expected to return to net profit in 2009 after a huge net loss a year earlier and aimed for net earnings of THB4 billion baht (USD$122 million) this year.

The flag carrier made a net loss of THB1.57 billion in the first nine months of 2009. In 2008 it reported a loss of THB21.4 billion because of the global economic slowdown and airport closures in Thailand caused by political protests.

“Initially, we estimate a 2010 net profit of THB4 billion,” President Piyasvasti Amranand told reporters. “And we could show net earnings for the whole of 2009.”

Piyasvasti said results due in February should show it made a net profit in the fourth quarter and he said the outlook was improving thanks to the economic recovery and management changes.

The airline, in the process of overhauling operations and restructuring management, announced a plan in October to issue new shares in 2010.

Details were expected last month but have been delayed pending approval from the Finance Ministry, which owns 51 percent of the airline.

“The ministry is considering the plan. We expect to get approval soon,” Piyasvasti said.

(Reuters)

US Airlines Eye Delta, Continental Bag Fee Increases

January 12, 2010

Recent bag check fee increases by Delta Air Lines and Continental Airlines could prompt rivals to follow as the US airline industry struggles to claw its way out of the 2009 economic downturn.

Sales of ancillary goods and services by airlines enable them to earn more money while keeping fares competitive. The strategy has paid off for US carriers that have struggled for survival amid high fuel prices, low-fare competition and recession.

Southwest Airlines has been a notable exception to this trend. The company has said it has benefited from its “bags fly free” marketing campaign.

“I believe the airlines will match, but because Southwest has yet to implement one, checked baggage fees will have a lower cap than they would otherwise have,” Morningstar analyst Basili Alukos said.

Continental now charges customers USD$25 for the first bag and USD$35 for a second piece of luggage for flights to and from the United States, Canada and the Virgin Islands. The carrier raised its fees on January 8.

Delta now charges USD$23 for the first bag and USD$32 for the second item.

“We have not changed our checked bag charges at this time,” said Tim Smith, spokesman for American Airlines. “We continue to study and monitor the marketplace as to the initiatives of Delta and Continental.”

Representatives for United Airlines and US Airways also said the carriers were studying the changes.

(Reuters)